The Macro Conditions For Bitcoin In 2026: Analyst Breaks Them Down

Macro trader plur daddy (@plur_daddy) argues bitcoin’s 2026 setup is less about crypto-specific catalysts and more about whether US liquidity conditions normalize after what he described as an unusually tight few months for risk. His central claim is that repo “plumbing” has been strained by a shortage of bank reserves as leverage in the economy grew faster than the Fed’s balance sheet, and that the resulting stress showed up in broader markets — “very choppy and rotational dynamics in equities” — alongside “a quite adverse environment for crypto.” Going into the new year, he expects a set of incremental shifts that could move conditions from tight back toward neutral, even if they do not create a new “loose” regime. 4 Macro Themes Will Be Crucial For Bitcoin The first lever is the Fed’s reserve management purchases (RMPs). “Since the Dec FOMC where they announced $40bn/mo in RMPs for 3 months (and an undefined lower amount thereafter), this liquidity has been flowing in. The Fed has a