75% Chance Crypto Is ‘Crossing The Chasm’ Now, Says Moonrock Capital Boss

Moonrock Capital founder Simon Dedic says the crypto industry is nearing a decisive transition from an early-adopter niche to a mainstream market, assigning a 75% probability that the sector will “finish crossing the chasm and enter the early-majority phase next year.” Is The Crypto Market Crossing The Chasm? Dedic frames his outlook using the classic technology adoption curve, which splits the market into innovators (2.5%), early adopters (13.5%), an early majority (34%), late majority (34%) and laggards (16%). The critical “chasm” lies between early adopters—“people who want newest things” and accept a minimum feature set—and the early majority, who demand a “whole product solution” and prioritize complete, convenient offerings. In his base case, Dedic argues that crypto is now close to exiting that chasm. If so, he says, “the classic 4-year cycles are dead. The market will have matured and will increasingly correlate with macro cycles and industry fundamentals rather than self-fulfi