비트코인이 바닥인가? Fidelity Research Lead는 가능성을 중시합니다

Bitcoin’s sell-off this week has reignited the question of whether the market has already printed a local bottom. Chris Kuiper, CFA, VP of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, argues that several on-chain and sentiment gauges now resemble prior bull-market corrections, while stressing that nothing is certain. “I as well as anyone never knows for sure,” Kuiper wrote on X, “but one chart I do like to use to help gauge the probabilities is the short-term holder MVRV chart along with their cost basis.” Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? The Glassnode chart he shared tracks Bitcoin against the realized price of short-term holders (STHs) and their MVRV ratio – a measure of whether this cohort is in aggregate profit or loss. In previous uptrends, local lows have often occurred when STH MVRV dipped below 1, briefly putting recent buyers underwater before price recovered. Kuiper notes that the current drawdown has pushed STHs back into loss territory in a way that looks similar to earlier mid-cycle pull