Bitcoin Risks A Year-Long Bear Market If This Happens: On-Chain Data

Bitcoin’s price action has pushed a closely watched on-chain profitability gauge into a configuration that, in 2022, preceded an extended drawdown and one analyst says a break below $70,000 would risk repeating that “year-long” reset. In a Dec. 30 morning brief, Axel Adler Jr. argued that Bitcoin’s “Supply in Profit” trend is at an inflection point after BTC stabilized in the $87,000–$90,000 range following the pullback from October highs. The metric, which tracks how much BTC is held above its acquisition price, has fallen sharply from October peaks above 19 million BTC to roughly 13.2 million BTC, creating a sizable gap between short- and medium-term moving averages. A 2022-Like Setup Looms For Bitcoin Adler’s core signal is the spread between the 30-day and 90-day simple moving averages of Supply in Profit. After the correction from the all-time high, the 30-day average “dropped significantly below” the 90-day, forming a gap of about 1.75 million BTC. Adler noted that “a similar con