Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Dump Is Over: On-Chain Data Just Flipped

Bitcoin’s long-term holder cohort appears to have stopped net selling, according to multiple on-chain commentators, in a shift that could remove a key source of structural supply pressure heading into 2026. The change hinges on a supply-change read of long-term holders (coins held longer than six months), which had been negative for months but has now turned modestly positive, said on-chain analyst Darkfost. Is This The Bitcoin Bottom Signal? Darkfost argues that recent claims about long-term holders “selling more than ever” miss what the data is actually showing, especially when large, discrete exchange-related movements skew the picture. “On this chart, which I adjusted to isolate the movement of nearly 800,000 BTC from Coinbase that was distorting LTH data, we can observe a clear shift in supply change,” Darkfost wrote. “Since July 16, the monthly LTH supply change (30 day sum) had been firmly anchored in a distribution phase until recently.” Related Reading: 2026 Bitcoin Price Pred